Google Stock Quote

Did anyone else notice that Google has made a trendline break to the upside? The downsloping trendline formed from the high of January 2007 and April 2007 has been violated to the upside.

I previously mentioned (see previous post 23 May 2007) the $485 level as an important one to higher prices.

Looks like we might just be off to the races for higher prices for Google’s stock.

A break above the $485 area could be breakout that GOOG needs to get this stock moving higher.

I admit it, I wasn’t paying attention today when GOOG made it’s afternoon run high - and subsequent retreat back to where it started the rally.

Nice little afternoon treat on decent volume that eventually gave back everything that it delivered. Not a real promising scenario, the stock looks like it is ready to make a run to higher prices but reverses - hmm??

What gives?

I’m sure there is some “news” to explain the whole situation.

I’m not showing the daily chart, but take a look at it. Notice that the 50 and 200 day simple moving averages are both pointing up and price seems to be riding the 50 day MA. This could be a slow-and-steady price increase that sneaks up on us. Since the beginning of March 2007, the stock has been making mostly higher highs and higher lows.

Today’s price action makes me think we are going to have some consolidation at least in the near term before moving higher (assuming that is where prices are going). I’ll be watching the daily charts 50 day and 200 day moving averages, especially if we get a break on higher than normal volume.

Can I make up my mind? Maybe I should have kept my mouth shut and just not said anything…

I thought I had it all figured out - the stock had all of the technical signals flashing “higher prices, higher prices". What does GOOG do? Goes lower - what’s that all about??? And no sooner than a day later, the stock reverses back up in a big way.

Google did what I thought it might do - just a day late and a dollar short so to speak. The stock reversed higher very near the 62% Fibonacci price retracement level. If filled the gap from about a month and a half ago.

Today was a classic bullish day, the stock gapped up on the open, trading down to test the gap, took out the morning high around 2PM in the afternoon, and it was off to the races from there on decent volume. GOOG ended the day up more than $14+ for the day.

A 15 minute intraday chart shows exactly what I am talking about. Notice the well formed Fibonacci sequence unfolding - wave 1 high near the gap open, wave 2 low in the AM, and what appears to be a wave 3 high near the close. Today’s high is very near a predicted wave 3 high. (see the chart for the wave 3 target - chart opens in a new window so you don’t lose your spot)

Given that the high today is near a wave three high, it is time to tighten up those stops on long positions that short term traders might have. I *suspect* that a gap opening tomorrow will be met with selling, will need to see with my own two eyes though.

Once a definitive wave three high is, we can calculate where a wave 4 low might show support and then project a wave 5 high. Until any of this speculation turns to reality …

That’s right, I am making an about face regarding my previous analysis. Let’s face it, I was wrong. The stock hasn’t proceeded higher like I thought it might.

The next level of possible support is near the $458 level which corresponds to the 62% Fibonacci price retracement level of the previous rally AND is close to closing the gap that occurred in early April when the stock popped above the 50 day moving average. After the $458 level is the $449 level where the 79% retracement level and the 200 day moving average are located.

Finally, a little sign of some bullish behavior. After the April 2007 earnings announcement of better than expected earnings, the stock has been in a funk. The stock hit a local high of $492.50. This past Friday’s closing price was at $466.74.

Here is why I am starting to like the stock from the long side again on a technical perspective.

First, the last two day’s price action took out the mid April support level of $462.24. Even better is that the previous day’s closing price was below that level - Thursday’s close came in at $461.27. Think about that, a previous support level was taken out on a closing basis, that’s something that typically gets the bears all exciting. On the other hand, Friday’s price action reverses a lot of the bearishness. Friday’s low is lower than Thursday’s low (pseudo-bearish confirmation), but closes up for the day.

Second, the stock seems to have found support along one of those popular moving average, the 50 day moving average. I’m just reporting the facts, folks. Look back at Google’s recent history and note the respect shown by the stock to the two most popular moving averages, the 50 day and the 200 day simple moving average and see what I am talking about. This past February, the stock’s advance was stopped cold by the 50 day MA. In early April, the stocked gapped through the 50 day MA. Within the next two trading weeks, the stock tested the 50 day moving average and support held. Now look at where the stock is at. The stock *appears* to have found support along the 50 day moving average. This is the hard right edge of trading - hence the use of the word “appears".

Finally, our good friend Fibonacci is showing up again. Look at the chart and tell me what you see. The stock is coming in for a landing at a price and time symmetry point. Price is very near the 50% retracement level and the same for time. A great time (and price) for a reversal to the upside.