Google Stock Quote

Lets start with the “factiods”

Google earned $4.12 per share. Discounting the stock given to employees, GOOG would have made $4.84 per share. This is higher than the average analyst expectation of $4.52 per share.

The Google pedestal is getting taller and taller. This is the 12th time out of the 15 quarters since GOOG went public that earnings beat expectations. Who can keep that pace up?

After hours trading is rewarding the stock price, up … hold on to your hat … $76.42 (17%) in after hours trading to $525.96.

I think this is the second time in Google’s brief history of trading that the stock’s 200 day simple moving average has turned down.

Yesterday’s price low tagged the lower 2.0% Bollinger Bands.

So What You Say

For those predicting doom-and-gloom, consider this a normal fluctuation within a large move.

Previously we had the euphoria driving the stock into the $700s, now we have the bears driving the stock down.

On the short term horizon, the stock popped up yesterday nicely. Today’s high approached the $450 level before getting turned back down.

Your stock drops 10%.

Microsoft Corp. today announced that it has made a proposal to the Yahoo! Inc. Board of Directors to acquire all the outstanding shares of Yahoo! common stock for per share consideration of $31 representing a total equity value of approximately $44.6 billion.

“Fire”

Looks like that is what the sheeple have heard in the crowded “GOOG” movie theater.

Stock is down $49.7299 to a still lofty $683.21 as of this posting.

Don’t recall if this has happened before or not for Google’s stock - going through two century marks in one calendar month.

Google goes through the $600 mark on 8 October 2007 and through the $700 mark on 31 October 2007.

Kind of like a blue moon.

Hopefully for those holding long positions in GOOG, we won’t see the stock go through 2 century marks on the downside.

As I write this post and look at the daily stock chart for Google, I can’t help but notice that the stock has been on an almost uninterrupted rise in price for more than two months. In mid-August 2007, the stock briefly pierced the rising 200 day moving average ~$490 and then started marching higher. Even the few down days in early September look like a tiny blip on the proverbial radar screen. Today’s price near $670 is 40% higher than the low from two months ago.

Want to know something? This is nothing. Go look at an all time chart (since 2004) for GOOG and tell me what you see. Or let me tell you what I see.

Just using my eyeballs, I see that Google stock doubled in price in 2004. Keep in mind that GOOG went public in August 2004. In 5+ short months, the stock doubled from $100 to $200.

Guess what happened in 2005? That’s right, the stock doubled again, from $200ish to over $400.

2006 was a lackluster year for Google. The stock price effectively did nothing, the beginning of January 2006 the stock was near $420, by the end of the year the stock was at $487, up a measly 16%.

2007 year to date is up about 38% - certainly better than 2006, but behind the gains of 2004 and 2005.

Based on previous price history, anyone want to bet that we haven’t see anything yet with regards to GOOG’s price appreciation? I’m not crazy enough to think that the stock can keep repeating the doubling of stock price every year, but my trading experience indicates that stock price movements can go well beyond what is “reasonable” - reasonable being a term I use loosely.

Finally, Google hit $600 exactly in the AM on 8 October 2007.

You can almost smell it, Google’s stock price at $600.

Those round century numbers act like a magnet. Today’s and yesterday’s large range bars look like a sprinter heading for the finishing line - the $600 per share finish line.

Don’t act too surprised when GOOG hits $600.

Just a technical word-of-warning. GOOG stock has had 8 consecutive days of higher lows. Depending on your perspective this is either good or bad news.

Good news because the stock has been strong on the recent breakout to new highs. The stock has had a number of large range days on increasing volume leading up to new highs. That’s good.

The last few days of trading in new price territory has occurred on lower volume. Not surprising given what has transpired.

The bad news, if you consider it, is that the recent rally appears to be running out of steam. When I mention that the last 8 days had occurred with higher lows, that implies that when (not if) the stock makes a lower low, we have to deal with all of the short term traders who have their sell stops just below the recent lows. Also note that today’s price bar is the first daily price bar in seven trading days that has the close less than the open. That is NOT a bullish sign. And to top it off, the stock made a new all time intraday high (i.e. - “turtle soup").

I’m not playing the doom-and-gloom card here, just want you to be aware of the “technicals” which are pointing to a short term top for GOOG.

That’s right, it’s make or break time again for Google’s stock. We are sitting on the cusp of greatness - or the brink of disaster. Alright, maybe that was a bit dramatic …

After successfully testing the 200 day moving average back in mid-August 2007, GOOG made a brand new all time high this Friday. Friday’s high ($560.79) and closing price ($560.12) cleared the previous all time high set back in July at $558.58. The last four trading days were all relatively large range days. Everything signals good times ahead.

With that said, stock trading history is littered with stocks making new highs that fail to continue further - double tops that become self fulfilling prophecies of the twilight of stock price appreciation. Can we expect to see GOOG follow this tragic path?

Just a minute, let me look into my crystal ball.

I’m back now and hoping that you realize there is no way to know what the future holds for this stock. We have to make decisions that rely on the hard right edge of trading. In real time, making decisions that rely on information to date and expectations of things to come.

Here’s what I “think” might happen. Google stock will go higher. I don’t expect any significant loss in the recent price gain. I also wouldn’t be surprised if we see a cup-n-handle formation occur where the stock pulls back “a little bit” before continuing higher. An inside bar setup would provide a decent setup for entering this stock on the long side.

By now you should no better than to let my thoughts ruin your ideas for GOOG … now go forth and do what you need to do.

So much for GOOG stock price stopping at the 50 day moving average.

Today (so far) and yesterday are large range up days for GOOG. Today’s price even started with a gap up. It certainly looks like GOOG is back to its old pattern of higher highs and higher lows after testing the 200 day moving average around $490 in mid June.

The down gap that formed in mid July is now officially closed. For those who aren’t familiar with the stock market lore that says “gaps tend to be filled", this is a real time example of that principle in action.

Now what? Does the stock continue to new all time highs - or test and fail to continue higher? All very good questions that the stock itself will answer in good time.

Looks like Google stock is back in the trading range it just broke out of. The stock dropped enough to pierce the 200 day moving average and has rallied since.

Who wants to bet the stock rallies up to the 50 day moving average near $520 and gets stopped? Its not like that’s happened before (sarcasm) … see the moving average squeeze video to get the picture for what I am talking about.

What do you know? I don’t say anything for a month and when I do it is about Google doing nothing, i.e. trading range bound and then look what happens. The stock falls out of bed.

Today’s opening price gapped down from yesterday. A look at the high today, 496.43, tells me the stock has made an attempt to fill the gap opening. The current price is below the opening price of $492.00. Hmm, looks like the stock’s breakout is to the downside.

… is more exciting that GOOG’s price action for the last month.

Go ahead and look at the link to the chart I posted previously. Yawn, boring!!

Google stock has been chopping around for almost a month now. One of these days, the stock is going to have to breakout.

These things happen. Take a look at where Google’s stock price is sitting - right on top of the uptrending 50 day moving average.

goog chart

About a month ago, June 5th to be exact, I suggested that Google’s stock might make a run for $547.21. Well, yesterday’s high came in at $548.74.

It has been quite a run up in the last 5 months or so, from the mid $450s to almost $550 now. Yesterday’s price bar looks like a shooting star in candlestick parlance. As such, this could be a local high. If yesterday’s price low at $540.26 gets taken out, especially if it happens soon, i.e. - today, don’t be surprised if the stock retraces the recent leg up OR at the very least chops around for awhile.

Well, so much for that. I was all primped and ready to watch the stock go lower from here. What happens? The stock reverses back to the upside almost immediately. An almost-immediate reversal back to the upside indicates higher prices likely. I know, I know, I’m not saying anything earth shattering - just pointing out the obvious.

Do note that this mini-rally from the middle of the month is occurring with less momentum than the leg up that topped out earlier this month. Volume is not as high and just about any momentum indicator (Stochastics, RSI, MACD) will likely show a divergence if price closes higher than the previous all time high.

I’m going to tell you in words what you can see on a daily stock chart.

Google stock formed a bearish engulfment with yesterday’s price action (20 June 2007). The open was greater than the previous day’s close, the stock made a new local high, then closed down lower than yesterday’s low.

If this is a change in direction AND the stock follows a nice A-B-C pattern with the A down leg equal to the C down leg (hasn’t happened yet), then the $491 price level is the obvious target.

The $491 level corresponds to (1) the 100% price projection, (2) the 50% price retracement of the recent up move from the mid-May 2007 low to the recent all time high, and (3) near the previous gap-and-trap high of 20 April 2007.

Now let me show you a GOOG price chart.

Not too surprising that Google is at an all time high. What is good to see is that today’s new high was done on decent volume and exceeded the 100% price projection.

Check out the chart. The “1 or A” leg up that started in early March 2007 and completed with Google’s better than expected earnings (20 April 2007) has been matched AND exceeded off of the leg up that began on 15 May 2007. What I would like to see is the stock stay above the 100% price projection of $512.91. If price does pull back then I would expect the ~$513 level to offer decent support (double top - 22 November 2006 and 16 January 2007).

For those already looking ahead to higher prices, the 162% Fibonacci projection level is at $547.21. Think we can get there?

I’m kidding of course. I have noticed that the media is getting all hyped up again as Google’s stock price is getting close to the all time high. Can’t we just make the new all time high event a non-dramatic experience?

Probably not. Not when you have the fool waxing eloquently about staying above 500 this time and if anyone from the street puts together a piece about how the sky is the limit for this stock … I shudder to think what will happen.

GOOG has been firing off technical signals for awhile indicating that higher prices were likely. Sure I got the timing wrong by a few days, but in general Google’s stock has “behaved well” according to technical analysis. Let’s see what happens when the stock makes a new all time high.

Did anyone else notice that Google has made a trendline break to the upside? The downsloping trendline formed from the high of January 2007 and April 2007 has been violated to the upside.

I previously mentioned (see previous post 23 May 2007) the $485 level as an important one to higher prices.

Looks like we might just be off to the races for higher prices for Google’s stock.